## [Happy fun Cold War 2 update - Noahpinion](https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/happy-fun-cold-war-2-update) This seems like the biggest thing that no one is talking about. This scares me way more than inflation, or healthcare, or AI, or whatever dumb culture war thing is dominating twitter. Are we on track for a war with China and Russia? > China is preparing for war. I am not saying it seeks a war. But, publicly and privately, the Chinese Communist Party is mobilizing its country for one…For the last 10 years, China has been working hard on preparing and refining its plans for national defense mobilization…One lesson to them from the Ukraine war is the shallow and fragile character of the U.S. defense-industrial base. Chinese manufacturing capacity now exceeds both the United States and Europe put together…There is little net public support in the United States for further big increases in defense spending beyond current levels. Yet despite an uptick in spending after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Michael Brown notes that “America has a smaller military with older and less equipment than at any time in memory.” What's the evidence for this? Well China seems to be not-so-subtly rehearsing for a blockade of Taiwan. > In his inaugural speech, the new DPP president, Lai Ching-te, [urged China to leave Taiwan alone](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/22/china-warns-of-reprisals-against-taiwan-after-presidents-inauguration-speech) and alluded to [the island’s autonomy](https://x.com/WenchiY/status/1795105287633784915), while falling short of asserting Taiwan’s formal independence — a pretty standard DPP position. But whereas in the past, China reacted with annoyance and protests to such speeches, this time it [surrounded Taiwan with warships](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqvv29gpqn1o): Along with this: > Meanwhile, China is making various other moves that look an awful lot like military preparations. It’s preparing a [large armada of ferries](https://x.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1794762314983592073) to support a possible amphibious assault. It’s [stockpiling](https://x.com/abcampbell/status/1792968340748620266) copper, iron, food, and energy. It’s [buying up gold](https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1787277873516011804?t=JC0Cq8yGW9d68NW0I4ReYw&s=19) and reducing its official holdings of U.S. government bonds, an obvious hedge against financial sanctions. And so on. Taiwan is very geopolitically important to the US, and any invasion or blockade of Taiwan greatly increases the chances of the US getting sucked into a war--a war against a superpower with nuclear weapons. I, for one, would like to avoid this. Noah argues that one way to avoid this is to make the US so industrially and militarily formidable that China won't want to try its luck: > Most of what I write about Cold War 2 is about what the U.S. needs to do in order to prepare for the decades-long marathon. Reviving U.S. manufacturing, restoring state capacity, strengthening old alliances and building new ones, maintaining America’s technological edge, and so on — these are all efforts that would take many years to accomplish. Fortunately, I see a lot of other people coming to similar conclusions. Are we on track for this? I'm not so sure. It would be a terrible start if we elected Trump, which is looking more and more likely: > Finally, perhaps the most important thing the U.S. can do in order to get through the crisis of the 2020s is to _not elect Donald Trump_ this November. Although Trump is a mercurial man whose behavior is hard to predict, his political support base is strongly opposed to Ukraine aid, and [his flip-flop on the TikTok divestment bill](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/14/trump-tiktok-billionaire-donors-00146892) shows that China and its proxies can easily sway Trump with money. Furthermore, his utter disregard for alliances in both Europe and Asia shows that he doesn’t understand how small U.S. manufacturing capacity is relative to China — he has no idea that the U.S. needs as many allies as possible in order to match China’s industrial might. What do the prediction platforms [say about this](https://www.metaculus.com/project/taiwan/)? [I am not reassured](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/): ![[Pasted image 20240530102037.png]] Consider me China hawk-pilled. ## What's going on at the southern border? Someone recently told me that the Governor of Texas was bussing illegal immigrants out of Texas and into blue cities, like Denver and New York. What? Why would he be bussing them further into the country instead of out of the country? I couldn't tell if this was real or if it was some TikTok conspiracy theory. Turns out [it's](https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-announces-first-bus-of-migrants-arrives-in-denver) [real](https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/texas-transports-over-100000-migrants-to-sanctuary-cities): > Governor Greg Abbott today announced the arrival of the first group of migrants bused to Denver, Colorado from Texas. The migrants were dropped off near Civic Center Park at 14th Street and Court Place this afternoon. > [...] > In April 2022, Governor Abbott [directed](https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Flnks.gd%2Fl%2FeyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJidWxsZXRpbl9saW5rX2lkIjoxMDEsInVyaSI6ImJwMjpjbGljayIsImJ1bGxldGluX2lkIjoiMjAyMjExMTUuNjY3MjE5NzEiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL2dvdi50ZXhhcy5nb3YvdXBsb2Fkcy9maWxlcy9wcmVzcy9PLUtpZGRXLk5pbTIwMjIwNDA2MjIxNl8ucGRmIn0.oUwWiCJxO3ojEjAb2nvky6u-CPzAaVbQubt5jir7E8g%2Fs%2F2143698984%2Fbr%2F148234699251-l&data=05%7C01%7Csheridan.nolen%40gov.texas.gov%7C65d2ee9473674fbe9b2408db57d89029%7C54cb5da6c7344242bbc25c947e85fb2c%7C0%7C0%7C638200359870800264%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=qPu%2FKiRI%2Bk%2FV1dXqzPX6bnpKzeYzWub93REeVrRM6JI%3D&reserved=0) the Texas Division of Emergency Management to charter buses to transport migrants from Texas to Washington, D.C. The Governor added [New York City](https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgov.texas.gov%2Fnews%2Fpost%2Fgovernor-abbott-announces-first-bus-of-migrants-arrives-in-new-york-city&data=05%7C01%7Csheridan.nolen%40gov.texas.gov%7C65d2ee9473674fbe9b2408db57d89029%7C54cb5da6c7344242bbc25c947e85fb2c%7C0%7C0%7C638200359870800264%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=XSUeVTuy8nju17wAv33ksqt2mNLdZY%2F9wB8%2BCCRvTqM%3D&reserved=0), [Chicago](https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgov.texas.gov%2Fnews%2Fpost%2Fgovernor-abbott-announces-first-bus-of-migrants-arrives-in-chicago&data=05%7C01%7Csheridan.nolen%40gov.texas.gov%7C65d2ee9473674fbe9b2408db57d89029%7C54cb5da6c7344242bbc25c947e85fb2c%7C0%7C0%7C638200359870800264%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=r%2Bjj%2BGZDm1%2BJze5H92U0aLntzKGw3CWDqGc1NcJrKvA%3D&reserved=0), and [Philadelphia](https://gcc02.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fgov.texas.gov%2Fnews%2Fpost%2Fgovernor-abbott-announces-first-bus-of-migrants-departs-for-philadelphia&data=05%7C01%7Csheridan.nolen%40gov.texas.gov%7C65d2ee9473674fbe9b2408db57d89029%7C54cb5da6c7344242bbc25c947e85fb2c%7C0%7C0%7C638200359870800264%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJWIjoiMC4wLjAwMDAiLCJQIjoiV2luMzIiLCJBTiI6Ik1haWwiLCJXVCI6Mn0%3D%7C3000%7C%7C%7C&sdata=NqLMiR9wbI9LK1seFCMi2ok%2F6jjh85om07lKFi2uawk%3D&reserved=0) as additional drop-off locations last year. Since beginning the migrant busing strategy last spring, more than 19,000 migrants have been transported to these self-declared sanctuary cities while providing much-needed relief to Texas' overwhelmed border communities. Ok, I'm still confused. How is this legal? The press release above provides a hint. It refers to one of Biden's policies as "mass catch and release": > "Texas' overwhelmed and overrun border communities should not have to shoulder the flood of illegal immigration due to President Biden's reckless open border policies, like his mass catch and release without court dates or any way to track them," said Governor Abbott. It turns out this isn't so much one of Biden's policies, as it is just the way applying for asylum works. This process is [completely dysfunctional](https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2024/03/17/biden-migrants-asylum-new-restrictions/): > Under U.S. immigration law, anyone who reaches U.S. soil has the right to seek asylum, regardless of how they arrive. Migrants who claim a fear of persecution in their home countries are referred to a U.S. asylum officer for an interview to determine whether their claims are credible. Applicants who face persecution on the basis of race, religion, gender, political opinion or membership in a particular social group are eligible for an asylum claim, and applicants can also be referred to the courts if officers determine the person is likely to face imminent harm if returned. > >For much of the past decade, as soaring numbers of migrants crossed illegally and expressed fear, most were able to pass the initial screening, which sent their cases to U.S. immigration courts. A much smaller number of those who made a fear claim — about 20 percent — were ultimately granted U.S. asylum. Many migrants never complete the application process after they are released from custody to await a court hearing, [court data](https://archive.is/o/0zOJI/https://www.justice.gov/eoir/page/file/1062976/dl) shows. So to apply for asylum, you must first get to the US. There are no restrictions on this. Illegally crossing does not disqualify you. Once you're here, you can express your desire to apply for asylum. The way this is supposed to work is: 1. You're case is triaged by an asylum officer that gives you a "credible fear interview." This is the "initial screening" mentioned above. 2. If the officer determines you're case for asylum is plausible, you are put in a detention center to await a hearing in front of a judge. 3. You plead your case to a judge who makes a decision on whether or not you can stay. Unfortunately, the shear volume of migrants has caused this process to break down. There is not enough room in detention centers, and the court system is hopelessly backed up, so migrants are released into the US in exchange for a promise to show up for a court date. As you might imagine, many never show up for their court hearing. > The gap between the relative ease of passing the initial screening and the tougher odds of getting U.S. asylum is considered by lawmakers from both parties to be an incentive for illegal border crossings. Migrants with weak or fake claims can avoid deportation and live and work in the United States while waiting for their asylum case to plod through clogged U.S. immigration courts — a process that takes five to seven years on average, according to the latest government estimates. > > And because DHS doesn’t have enough asylum officers to screen all the migrants expressing fear, border crossers who don’t get initial interviews are referred to the immigration court system and released into the United States. About half of illegal border crossings are families with children, who are generally not detained. So, the fact that the system has broken down only increases the incentive for migrants to try their luck at the border. There's a good chance they'll simply be released into the US (and get a free bus ticket to a big city!) whether or not their asylum application is legitimate. This may be one reason why [border encounters are on the rise](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/02/15/migrant-encounters-at-the-us-mexico-border-hit-a-record-high-at-the-end-of-2023/): ![[Pasted image 20240530095845.png]] Governor Abbott has handled this by offering these migrants a free bus ticket to sanctuary cities. You gotta hand it to him. This is an amazing troll. I don't think this is a *good* policy, but comm'on it's pretty funny. I do in general support the concept of asylum, but if the current system is so broken, it's being used as an opportunity to bypass legal immigration routes, I think it needs to be fixed.