## [AI and Productivity Growth - IGM Survey](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/ai-and-productivity-growth-2/) - Question A: The question is about whether AI will substantially increase the annual rate of economic growth in advanced economies over the next 10 years. - About 50/50 agree/uncertain - Question B: The question is about whether AI will have a larger impact on economic growth over the next 10 years than the internet did over the past 10 years. - 20/70 agree/uncertain ### Comments from each question Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. - Though breakthroughs in large language models are impressive and appear to be capable of increasing human productivity, there is no evidence that they can be effectively employed in production. Past applications have often disappointed. Current direction of AI is also distorted.  - It may accelerate scientific breakthroughs, but it may also spur social chaos. Whether the productive outpaces the destructive is uncertain.  - Between 2033 and 2053? That seems about right, given the adaptation lag historically to earlier general purpose technologies. - I am confident that this is uncertain. AI substitutes for certain jobs and not for others, so a complex, General Equilibrium analysis is required. I have not so far seen any analysis that I would find convincing. - AI should improve economic growth but adoption of new tech will be slow because people do not like change, loss of status, etc. - AI will be helpful in many areas. But it will be fighting against the headwinds of many types of regulation as well as learning how to use it best. Net effect in next ten years is promising, but uncertain. - AI will most likely lead ultimately to a very substantial increase in growth rates----but that may take longer than 10 years. - However (i) substantial effect on income inequality is probable and (ii) measurement of actual effect on growth will depend on improvements on treatment of "free" goods and quality changes.. - Too early to know - Seems unlikely but who knows? - ...that or take over the world :) Please explain your response in 280 characters or less. - There is some uncertainty here as well. But in its current direction AI is an "inappropriate technology" for many emerging economies and may slow down their growth, as it seeks to substitutes capital and programming skills for middle and low skills. - AI is potentially an even bigger deal than the Internet for industrialized countries (though not for the developing world). Whether this potential will generate faster growth rates is, in my mind, uncertain given the vast potential for ancillary harms.  - AI will directly improve measured growth because it will economize on use of inputs. Impact of internet (e.g. Facebook, Google) is less clear and more difficult to measure. - Same explanation as before - The contribution will be large but the comparison is not easy to make at this point. - Too early to know - If Internet plus smart phone did not move the needle why should we expect this to do so? ## [Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Academic Science: An Adversarial Collaboration - PubMed](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37098793/) > Contrary to the omnipresent claims of sexism in these domains appearing in top journals and the media, our findings show that tenure-track women are at parity with tenure-track men in three domains (grant funding, journal acceptances, and recommendation letters) and are advantaged over men in a fourth domain (hiring). For teaching ratings and salaries, we found evidence of bias against women; although gender gaps in salary were much smaller than often claimed, they were nevertheless concerning.